My read on this is that the demand for American whiskey has plummeted that they have too much supply to meet future demand. The industry is in a pretty precarious position right now with several distilles pausing production (e.g. Balcones won't distill at all in 2026. Dickle paused production in September, and MGP is reducing their volume to align with demand). Plus, Four Roses is for sale at an asking price that is probably double what they're actually worth.
In addition to the fairly high profile issues Uncle Nearest is having:
- A.M. Scott Distillery (Ohio): Filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy this month.
- Luca Mariano Distillery (Kentucky): Filed for Chapter 11 in August/November 2025, with up to $50 million in debt; the founder also filed personally.
- JJ Pfister Distilling Co. (California), Devils River Distillery (Texas), House Spirits Distillery (Oregon), Boston Harbor Distillery (Massachusetts), and Lee Spirits Co. (Colorado): All filed for bankruptcy between March and May 2025.
On the barrel side of the business, Brown-Forman Corporation, the parent company behind brands like Jack Daniel's, Woodford Reserve, and Old Forester, shut down its Louisville-based cooperage in April 2025 as part of a broader restructuring that included reducing its global workforce by about 12% (impacting around 650 employees total, with 210 specifically from the cooperage). Independent Stave Company (ISC) consolidated operations at its Kentucky Cooperage in Lebanon to a single shift, resulting in 112 permanent layoffs starting in October.
What adds additional pressure to the industry is shifting consumer preferences to tequila which has seen consistent growth, despite an overall decline of nearly 3% in the spirit segment.
All this to say is that you'll probably find prices for base to mid-tier products coming down as brands compete for what ever business is left. Those hard to find mid to high-end releases will likely remain hard to find and over priced. However, we are seeing some previously "allocated" products now being readily available (e.g., E.H. Taylor Small Batch, High West Midwinter's Night Dram). So unless you're chasing rare or very limited releases, I wouldn't worry about stocking up. The slow down in sales will lead to future releases featuring older whiskey (already seeing this with Eagle Rare 12 being a standard release vs. just older barrels in Eagle Rare 10 as was common a few years ago).
I totally forgot that Oak & Eden went out of business in 2025. The post below from The Bourbon Dude reminded me of that since they were selling young MGP juice with a wood spire in the bottle.
Here is the post:
The Whiskey Bubble Just Popped (And It’s Not Who You Think)
Everyone is focused on the drama with brand faces right now, but nobody is looking at the engine room. If you care about the future of bourbon and rye, you need to read this.
We’re talking about MGP Ingredients. (ROSS & SQUIBB)
You know them, the factory in Indiana that makes the whiskey for High West, WhistlePig, and hundreds of other brands. They are the backbone of the industry. And that backbone just snapped.
Here is the real story:
In late 2025, a massive class-action lawsuit hit MGP (ROSS & SQUIBB). The allegation? Securities fraud.
Basically, shareholders are saying MGP execs spent over a year (May 2023 to Oct 2024) telling everyone that demand for "brown goods" was strong and record-breaking. They kept the hype train moving.
The Reality Check: The market was actually softening, and the truth came out in two brutal waves last October:
Oct 17, 2025: MGP admits sales are down 24%. The stock tanks nearly 30% instantly.
Oct 31, 2025: They admit they are sitting on excess inventory that will hurt them well into 2026. Another 15% drop.
In just two weeks, MGP lost nearly 50% of its market value.
Why Does This Matter to You? Because of something called the "Bullwhip Effect." For years, we’ve seen bottles sit on shelves longer. But distributors and brands kept ordering new juice, thinking the dip was temporary.
They finally stopped ordering.
The lawsuit revealed that MGP’s sales for "distilling solutions" (the whiskey they sell to other brands) dropped 43% in Q3 2025.
That number is catastrophic. It means the "NDP Gold Rush" where anyone could buy MGP juice, slap a cool label on it, and sell it for $80 is officially dead. Small brands have stopped buying. They are either trying to sell what they already have, or they are going out of business.
The "industrial crisis" is here. Expect to see a lot fewer labels on the shelf in the next 18 months.
Thoughts? Are you seeing the NDPs disappear from your local shelves yet?
Moab Trail Run 2026
Kentucky Ford Plant Tour 2026
Flagstaff Trail Run 2026
Big Bend Trail Run 2025
+5
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