FYI 2022 Updated Production Schedule

[OldCowboy]

Yeah, most people don't really realize how bad things are right now.

For people who just watch and believe the news... next year is going to be a rough year, I think.

Yep, I've been a prepper for years. I have 0 debt. I'm moving my 401K out of the stock market. I think it's still going to be rough after all I am able to do. My friends used to tease me about being a prepper. Now they think I'm kinda smart. When it gets bad they'll think I'm a genius. I'm not the one changing.

 

[MtnBound]

Yeah, most people don't really realize how bad things are right now. We all tend to live in our own personal bubble and only really recognize things that directly impact that bubble. We may read news or hear people talking but it seems to not really sink in until it touches our bubble.

The industry I work in, I'll just say, impacts everyone in America. Zero question, the company I work for directly impacts every American. They produce food. They are taking a huge hit on inflationary costs. Those costs are in the process of being transferred to wholesalers and retailers. Then those wholesalers will pass them to retailers. Then the retailers will transfer them to consumers.

Right now the US government is saying 4..5... maybe 6% inflation. No. Wholesalers and retailers took double digit rate increases multiple times for the same products this year. Let me re-state that for emphasis; wholesalers and retailers took double digit rate increases multiple times for the same products this year.

You, the consumer, have not seen even half of the increases yet. It takes time for these behemoth retailers to push out these increases. They also negotiate out a smoother curve for these than just a hit that starts today -- so a rate that's negotiated today may not go into effect for months.

Our contract rates for product movement (truck/rail/container-ship) are up over 50% across the board. That's contract rates, spot rates are nearly double. For our company alone this will add multiple billions in added costs that aren't yet realized but will go into product increases next year.

It's going to get worse and consumers aren't seeing the actual impact of the bad yet.

This information is a large part of why I'm buying a $80k truck right now instead of waiting for sale prices to come back. They're not coming back. Not in a year, not in two years, not in five years.

Blackrock (not my company so I'll finger point here), for example, is a large money firm. They manage trillions in their portfolio and have direct faucets into the fed pool. You know what Blackrock has been doing with their money? Know anyone who's tried buying a median priced single family home lately? Yeah, Blackrock is buying them sight unseen -- cash offers 5%+above market (and generally quite a bit above asking).

Think about that for a second. They are buying over market. They are buying an asset that cost money to maintain. They are buying an asset that is taxed to own. They are buying an asset that requires a management structure to support. On and on.

All of that extra cost, the immediate loss (over market), much more complex management structure, etc... do you think Blackrock, who manages literally trillions (about 9, I think), thinks taking an immediate double digit percentage hit on their cash is safer than having the cash.

My guess, and it's a wild guess based totally on my bubble and random stuff I know, is that these trucks will be well into the six figure price range within a year.

For people who just watch and believe the news... next year is going to be a rough year, I think.

This substantiates what my SIL said....today is the cheapest a new truck will cost.

 

[wnctremor]

I got confirmation today that the truck was delivered to dealer today. I included detail below for those that would want to know dates. Overall a little over 3 1/2 months.

Order Date 6-15-21
Production Date- 8-30-21
Ship Date- 9-15-21 (Rail)
Delivered to dealer 9-29-21
Picking up 9-30-21

250 6.7 King Ranch Star White.
Here is the pic the salesman sent us.
Cant wait!!

Update
I freaking love driving this truck!
Just over 400 miles over the last 5 days with no complaints. Loved my 2500HD but sold on Super Duty now.

 

[Longrangehunter]

Yeah, most people don't really realize how bad things are right now. We all tend to live in our own personal bubble and only really recognize things that directly impact that bubble. We may read news or hear people talking but it seems to not really sink in until it touches our bubble.

The industry I work in, I'll just say, impacts everyone in America. Zero question, the company I work for directly impacts every American. They produce food. They are taking a huge hit on inflationary costs. Those costs are in the process of being transferred to wholesalers and retailers. Then those wholesalers will pass them to retailers. Then the retailers will transfer them to consumers.

Right now the US government is saying 4..5... maybe 6% inflation. No. Wholesalers and retailers took double digit rate increases multiple times for the same products this year. Let me re-state that for emphasis; wholesalers and retailers took double digit rate increases multiple times for the same products this year.

You, the consumer, have not seen even half of the increases yet. It takes time for these behemoth retailers to push out these increases. They also negotiate out a smoother curve for these than just a hit that starts today -- so a rate that's negotiated today may not go into effect for months.

Our contract rates for product movement (truck/rail/container-ship) are up over 50% across the board. That's contract rates, spot rates are nearly double. For our company alone this will add multiple billions in added costs that aren't yet realized but will go into product increases next year.

It's going to get worse and consumers aren't seeing the actual impact of the bad yet.

This information is a large part of why I'm buying a $80k truck right now instead of waiting for sale prices to come back. They're not coming back. Not in a year, not in two years, not in five years.

Blackrock (not my company so I'll finger point here), for example, is a large money firm. They manage trillions in their portfolio and have direct faucets into the fed pool. You know what Blackrock has been doing with their money? Know anyone who's tried buying a median priced single family home lately? Yeah, Blackrock is buying them sight unseen -- cash offers 5%+above market (and generally quite a bit above asking).

Think about that for a second. They are buying over market. They are buying an asset that cost money to maintain. They are buying an asset that is taxed to own. They are buying an asset that requires a management structure to support. On and on.

All of that extra cost, the immediate loss (over market), much more complex management structure, etc... do you think Blackrock, who manages literally trillions (about 9, I think), thinks taking an immediate double digit percentage hit on their cash is safer than having the cash.

My guess, and it's a wild guess based totally on my bubble and random stuff I know, is that these trucks will be well into the six figure price range within a year.

For people who just watch and believe the news... next year is going to be a rough year, I think.

I know someone who works in Grocery supply chain - working with vendors and farmers dealing in wholesale pricing for national grocery chains. Produce and meat have been more heavily impacted by western droughts than people realize.

They say that it's going to get bad, that the YOY cost increases are the highest 1-year increase in history, by a factor of 10. But hey, at least this admin saved us $0.16 on our 4th of July BBQ!

Regardless of what the Federal Reserve or Consumer Price Index claim inflation is, inflation is the increase in the cost of living. Homes, groceries, vehicles, gas, taxes - any way you measure, the cost of living has gone up substantially in the last two years.

A good metric for the health of an economy is the lending ratios that the Fed allows banks - that is how the money supply is controlled, not "printing money". A healthy economy is around 4:1 loans vs. managed assets. Meaning; a bank with $1M in managed assets can loan $4M. Last I heard, the ratios were at 12:1, which is essentially unregulated.

As long as the gubmint checks keep coming, fools will keep playing in the rain, but I'd be looking long and hard at an Ark right now.

 

[mortgage brokerage tremor]

Build date is Oct 11th, but no Window Sticker yet. But also no email pushing back build date. I thought the Window Sticker always generated within a week of the Build Date. Did others not have Window Stickers generate 5+ days in advance and have the truck get built?

I have a build date of the week of 18th so we are within a few days of each other, no window sticker for me either. Curious to see how the dates pan out for us in the end.

 

[Skidude555]

I have a build date of the week of 18th so we are within a few days of each other, no window sticker for me either. Curious to see how the dates pan out for us in the end.

I got my window sticker the Thursday before my scheduled build week.

 

[RyanP]

Cool man, only asking for an answer. A projection. An estimate. Literally free on their behalf.

Im pretty sure if they knew they would tell us.

 

[SirFer]

I was getting worried with all the guys getting build weeks/days pushed back but I woke up this morning to an email from Ford saying my truck is built!

Estimated ETA to Granger Ford is 10/25-10/31.

I had a trip booked for that week that I was planning to take the truck on but ended up just booking flights and a rental car so it'll probably be the first week of November before I'm able to fly up to IA and drive home to FL.

 

[Skidude555]

I was getting worried with all the guys getting build weeks/days pushed back but I woke up this morning to an email from Ford saying my truck is built!

Estimated ETA to Granger Ford is 10/25-10/31.

I had a trip booked for that week that I was planning to take the truck on but ended up just booking flights and a rental car so it'll probably be the first week of November before I'm able to fly up to IA and drive home to FL.

Congrats, that’s good news!

 

[Simple.]

Just got another email from Ford. Build week moved from 11/1 to 10/25. Man I hope this sticks! (Or moves closer). Finally starting to feel special

 

[MTSD]

Got the same email for the 2nd order...moved up from 11/1 to 10/25.

 

[Spolly07]

Just got another email from Ford. Build week moved from 11/1 to 10/25. Man I hope this sticks! (Or moves closer). Finally starting to feel special

Same here getting excited

 

[5inches]

This thread took a pretty depressing and frightening turn this morning! Was hoping to just log on and see a bunch of people stoked on their new trucks or their progress towards it!

 

[TJ Carr]

Yeah, most people don't really realize how bad things are right now. We all tend to live in our own personal bubble and only really recognize things that directly impact that bubble. We may read news or hear people talking but it seems to not really sink in until it touches our bubble.

The industry I work in, I'll just say, impacts everyone in America. Zero question, the company I work for directly impacts every American. They produce food. They are taking a huge hit on inflationary costs. Those costs are in the process of being transferred to wholesalers and retailers. Then those wholesalers will pass them to retailers. Then the retailers will transfer them to consumers.

Right now the US government is saying 4..5... maybe 6% inflation. No. Wholesalers and retailers took double digit rate increases multiple times for the same products this year. Let me re-state that for emphasis; wholesalers and retailers took double digit rate increases multiple times for the same products this year.

You, the consumer, have not seen even half of the increases yet. It takes time for these behemoth retailers to push out these increases. They also negotiate out a smoother curve for these than just a hit that starts today -- so a rate that's negotiated today may not go into effect for months.

Our contract rates for product movement (truck/rail/container-ship) are up over 50% across the board. That's contract rates, spot rates are nearly double. For our company alone this will add multiple billions in added costs that aren't yet realized but will go into product increases next year.

It's going to get worse and consumers aren't seeing the actual impact of the bad yet.

This information is a large part of why I'm buying a $80k truck right now instead of waiting for sale prices to come back. They're not coming back. Not in a year, not in two years, not in five years.

Blackrock (not my company so I'll finger point here), for example, is a large money firm. They manage trillions in their portfolio and have direct faucets into the fed pool. You know what Blackrock has been doing with their money? Know anyone who's tried buying a median priced single family home lately? Yeah, Blackrock is buying them sight unseen -- cash offers 5%+above market (and generally quite a bit above asking).

Think about that for a second. They are buying over market. They are buying an asset that cost money to maintain. They are buying an asset that is taxed to own. They are buying an asset that requires a management structure to support. On and on.

All of that extra cost, the immediate loss (over market), much more complex management structure, etc... do you think Blackrock, who manages literally trillions (about 9, I think), thinks taking an immediate double digit percentage hit on their cash is safer than having the cash.

My guess, and it's a wild guess based totally on my bubble and random stuff I know, is that these trucks will be well into the six figure price range within a year.

For people who just watch and believe the news... next year is going to be a rough year, I think.

Yep, it’s going to get way worse before it gets any better & this President and administration are just making things worse by a order of magnitude or 10

Global sourcing is not able to keep up, the lack of employees & then look at the aging roads & how far traffic and semis are backupd & slow going, went past a Walmart food distribution center the other day & must have been 20-30 semis lined up blocking roads waiting to get in and nobody leaving

 

[Mojave_Idiot]

Im pretty sure if they knew they would tell us.

You might think that, but they already aren’t telling us anything at all. We’re going on rumors and leaks as is. There is zero formal communication to the customers and what’s going to dealerships (who are also routinely awful at anything except upselling warranties) is next to nothing, as we’ve observed over the past 330 pages.

You cannot possibly believe that they are in a position where this truckload of widgets can show up at the Kentucky plant loading dock any minute now, and have been in this position for months.

I’m well aware of the supply chain issues. I’m DoD. Our supply chain was absolute garbage before COVID, but I could still rough out a timeline and I’m just a pilot coordinating with maintenance. Supply shortages is not the problem I have here, it’s the lack of any willingness to project a month, quarter, year, or even possibility.

Obviously they don’t have to give a damn, they’re gonna sell every truck they make regardless, so good on them. You can come to their defense if you want, I’m only asking that they’d put an ounce of effort into communicating anything at all.

 

[slimcubby]

My truck traveled 6 hours closer to me over night! Tracking the railcar has to be the best part being able to see your soon to be new truck get closer and closer to your dealership.

 

[Edunn37]

Just got another email from Ford. Build week moved from 11/1 to 10/25. Man I hope this sticks! (Or moves closer). Finally starting to feel special

Got the same email today. Hopefully it holds

 

[RyanP]

Got the same email today. Hopefully it holds

Mines already scheduled for that week. I hope i dont get bumped lol

 

[5inches]

My truck traveled 6 hours closer to me over night! Tracking the railcar has to be the best part being able to see your soon to be new truck get closer and closer to your dealership.

Until you watch it blow past you about 300 miles when it came within about 40 miles of you house and 50 of the dealer!

 

[Iconic_7.3]

Scheduling Notes - 2022MY F-Series Super Duty
Super Duty with Adaptive Steering - we will not be scheduling the following 22MY Super Duty configurations:

• Lariat with Adaptive Steering (60A) (including Lariat Tremor equipped with Adaptive Steering)
• Platinum With Adaptive Steering (60A) (including Platinum Tremor equipped with Adaptive Steering)
• Limited

There is no information on why or how long the Adaptive Steering (60A) will be on hold for the above models.

Plant scheduling is previewing full for orders not already previewing as selected for scheduling on Thursday. Allocation for orders not previewing/selected will roll over to next week's scheduling.



Lmao. I don’t even care. I know @Mojave_Idiot posted this too. What’s another week.

Well i was having a great day until i saw this