SHTF anyone?

[Vermonster]

I’m pretty out of the loop now a days. In a past life I was a Nuclear Plant operator and we had access to a lot of interesting bulletins and threats (solar activity too!) but now I’m just a poor uninformed schmuck that gets my news from the internet.

That solar stuff is pretty fascinating!

 

[DDD]

Yep. I’ll fight like hell too and have no intention of “curling up.” But I won’t be spending my valuable time and resources looking at the sky for mysterious signs or for imaginary enemies or threats based on conspiratorial theories floated by angry, emotionally-challenged folks that have to look for and blame everything under the sun for their lot in life, their rights and freedoms being “taken away” and the fact that they might not have the life they think they deserve. I live free as a bird and my inalienable rights are quite intact. There will be an end to every life and perhaps the entire world too someday. And Zuckerberg and Bezos won’t be spared either! This is what short-term only thinking leads to. I’m just going to drive my Tremor and soak in as much life as I can while I’m still vertical on this globe!

 

[Vecman]

I've always looked at prepping in 2 ways - for fun, and, just to prepare for natural disasters, famine, etc. which is far more likely. COVID should have taught many of us what to do to be better prepared for things that can happen. I have food and water stores, which can also come in to play even if you lose a job of something. Some things I buy just because it's fun. Those bulletproof/fireproof panels @Vermonster linked above would be super cool to have. Necessary? probably not, but absolutely cool. My goal is to get a place in the next few years that I can be 100% self sufficient. Energy, water, food, etc. Not because of any end of the world situation, but just because I don't want to be tied to others for my "survival". I love the idea of living of my own land and no matter what is happening outside, we can live our lives on our own place.
Plus, I'm just getting sick of society in general. Haha

 

[Skibum1681]

Yep. I’ll fight like hell too and have no intention of “curling up.” But I won’t be spending my valuable time and resources looking at the sky for mysterious signs or for imaginary enemies or threats based on conspiratorial theories floated by angry, emotionally-challenged folks that have to look for and blame everything under the sun for their lot in life, their rights and freedoms being “taken away” and the fact that they might not have the life they think they deserve. I live free as a bird and my inalienable rights are quite intact. There will be an end to every life and perhaps the entire world too someday. And Zuckerberg and Bezos won’t be spared either! This is what short-term only thinking leads to. I’m just going to drive my Tremor and soak in as much life as I can while I’m still vertical on this globe!

I'm confused by the "short term thinking" comment.

I would think prepping (in any capacity) would be the opposite of short term thinking, no?

 

[Modman]

I probably would not want to be around, but I want to be prepared and go down swinging if/when the time comes. My priority will be to protect my family. This can come in many different forms - learning to live off the land, self defense, etc... None of us "really" know what will happen

but it does mean I need a way to make sure my family stays warm, has food and water and is safe

I look at the different scenarios and think that there is a high probability we won't know what is really going on and how long it will last if something major happens. Maybe via HAM of other alternative communication, though... Regardless, I want to be able to weather the storm for awhile with the essentials to survive.

 

[Vermonster]

I look at the different scenarios and think that there is a high probability we won't know what is really going on and how long it will last if something major happens. Maybe via HAM of other alternative communication, though... Regardless, I want to be able to weather the storm for awhile with the essentials to survive.

Agreed. Remember kids, everyone can use the HAM in an emergency! However, I became licensed.

 

[DDD]

I apologize about that. My take on short-term thinking is this: I’ve been alive 70 years now. It’s never been perfect, there were always clear and present dangers, there were major international and domestic crises, and somehow we were able to see our way through and weather the storms and keep things together. But I’ve never lived through a time like this, where almost every day there’s a new scenario that we’re losing everything or it’s being taken from us, everyone and every thing that happens is a potential threat, and we need to prepare for doomsday scenarios that other folks tell us are just around the corner and will strip us of everything we have and worked for, and to prepare for the absolute worst that we can imagine. Maybe we’ve seen too many movies! While preparing for doomsday may be considered short-term prep, I prefer looking at long-term realities based upon evidence from the past. Can it happen? Of course, anything can happen. But it hasn’t happened yet and I don’t see those “signs” that it’s imminent either, so I try to avoid alarmist ideas that take me away from living without such encumbrances. That’s what I was trying to say — see the longer, bigger picture as well.

 

[TRAMPER]

I apologize about that. My take on short-term thinking is this: I’ve been alive 70 years now. It’s never been perfect, there were always clear and present dangers, there were major international and domestic crises, and somehow we were able to see our way through and weather the storms and keep things together. But I’ve never lived through a time like this, where almost every day there’s a new scenario that we’re losing everything or it’s being taken from us, everyone and every thing that happens is a potential threat, and we need to prepare for doomsday scenarios that other folks tell us are just around the corner and will strip us of everything we have and worked for, and to prepare for the absolute worst that we can imagine. Maybe we’ve seen too many movies! While preparing for doomsday may be considered short-term prep, I prefer looking at long-term realities based upon evidence from the past. Can it happen? Of course, anything can happen. But it hasn’t happened yet and I don’t see those “signs” that it’s imminent either, so I try to avoid alarmist ideas that take me away from living without such encumbrances. That’s what I was trying to say — see the longer, bigger picture as well.

Agreed. My point was having a few weeks of food water and power to me isn’t preparing it’s just common sense. I seriously doubt I’ll live through a real SHTF situation anyway but as mentioned above I know I will live through a blackout, a blizzard, and Ice storm and who knows what else because I already have. I’d rather not be the guy in the grocery store buying the last loaf of bread in a blizzard because I wouldn’t ever have no food in my house. I know some people get wrapped up in the fantasy which sounds awful personally but I certainly sleep better knowing if I wake up and the power is out for a few days it’s business as usual for the most part. If SHTF for real I’ll be just as dead as the rest of you lol. It’s one thing to be ready for a week or two, but to have the skills to survive for real without modern technology…. Idk. I think most people would find it near impossible.

 

[Tex_Hunter]

The way I see it, preparing for potential SHTF scenarios falls into two broader categories:

1) Major catastrophic event in the vane of all out nuclear war or yellowstone caldera, comet/meteor etc.

2) Significant regional/national event such as sever weather/natural disaster, pandemic, grid failure, economic collapse, social unrest, etc.

If it is the former, I read a statistic that something like 90%+ of the people who survive the initial destructive event will die due to starvation/disease within the subsequent weeks or months. Think of that for a second, BILLIONS of people dying in a very short period of time. No matter how much you have prepared, its lottery odds as to whether you even make it more than week or two as food/resources will be non-existent and/or highly contested. You cant really rely on gardens or off the grid living because there's no guarantee that it wont be destroyed in the first place. If you are asking my opinion? Assuming I am with my family/loved ones when everything goes down, I'd rather just be consumed by the fireball if I am honest. I'm sure there's people out there who fantasize about the opportunity to live in a post apocalyptic wasteland, I'm not one of them.

In the latter scenario, anything that causes major disruption for more than a couple of weeks is still going to really put the hurt on a lot of people. Think about the quantities of basic necessities like fresh water, food, first aid, etc. that you'd need to have on hand to make it more than a few weeks. How are you going to store perishable food any longer than 48hrs if you are without power? How much fuel can you realistically have on hand if you are running a generator or if you plan on bugging out in a vehicle? How will you get fresh vegetables/dairy products once the trucks stop and the supermarket is picked clean? Not having critical nutrients will kill you almost as quickly as outright starvation will. Then consider how the accumulation of these things puts a HUGE target on your back to anyone who wasn't prepared. If you are in a more rural environment, it's true that you are further away from potential unrest, but you are also further away from whatever limited emergency services exist as they will be concentrated around city centers and critical infrastructure. You will be on your own if something happens to you. Whether you are in a city or rural, how do you plan on defending yourself? Put differently, to what length are you actually willing to go to defend yourself (easy to be tough on the internet, it's not always going to be Antifa/BLM/whatever your boogeyman of choice is, what will you do when it's your neighbor or their kid or one of your friends from church/school/community who comes knocking on the door).

Even in that second scenario, the practical difference between someone who is "prepared" and not prepared is basically measured in weeks before you are right there with everyone else. COVID was a good stress test, but at the end of the day it wasnt even close to what a real disruptive regional/national event would cause.

 

[OldCowboy]

I agree with all of the above. Prepping to live through every "end of the world" scenario is not realistic, and just about every long-term apocalyptic fantasy has a bad ending. But I see prepping as quite useful for both short-term and intermediary scenarios. If an ice storm cuts power for a week, I'm good. If our fragile grid goes down, whether by natural causes or intentional action, it may take a month or so to it bring back up, because the big transformers are made in China and we don't have many in the US, and I'm still good. Longer scenarios involve a lot more study and preparing, but at this point my concern changes to the long-term health of my children and grandchildren. I'm ok not surviving through the apocalypse. If anyone will, I want it to be my children. The odds are against it, but if I can change the odds, in their favor, I'm going to try.

 

[TRAMPER]

I agree with all of the above. Prepping to live through every "end of the world" scenario is not realistic, and just about every long-term apocalyptic fantasy has a bad ending. But I see prepping as quite useful for both short-term and intermediary scenarios. If an ice storm cuts power for a week, I'm good. If our fragile grid goes down, whether by natural causes or intentional action, it may take a month or so to it bring back up, because the big transformers are made in China and we don't have many in the US, and I'm still good. Longer scenarios involve a lot more study and preparing, but at this point my concern changes to the long-term health of my children and grandchildren. I'm ok not surviving through the apocalypse. If anyone will, I want it to be my children. The odds are against it, but if I can change the odds, in their favor, I'm going to try.

Brazil. Those big giant transformers are made in Brazil, at least the ones I’ve seen.

Past job at the nuke plant we removed a 40 year old GE transformer and replaced it with a new Areava from Brazil…. Well it lasted about 2 weeks before it exploded and the 10’s of thousands of gallons of oil inside it lit the outside of the plant wall on fire lol. JUNK…. If Covid taught us anything it’s we need to bring back American manufacturing, not just for jobs but national security. I hope I live to see it.

 

[Vermonster]

You know - I love this thread and the collective thinking. Thanks @OldCowboy . It’s a good way of sharing ideas and what it means to you. I absolutely love @DDD ’s recent post.

If we are considering scorched earth, that’s a whole different level. Having seen options to weather the storm - yes please.

I pray we never have to face these things, but at least we have a chance to make decisions if we prepare.

 

[gsea]

Never realized this thread existed. The initial post regarding the fuel trailer is interesting, as I'd been contemplating the same problem of retrieving some family members over approx a 2k mile round trip. A 58 gal Transferflow tank and an in-bed transfer/aux tank around 100 gals should do the trick, but will need to look into the legalities of that for pre-SHTF use. Guess I'll need to go back and read the thread and see what the conclusion was.

Overall, I think it's a good discussion. Some times even just being prepare for "personal SHTF" is good. Food and some fuel storage, for example, can sure come in handy if you suddenly find yourself out of work, for example.

Also, there are limits to how much stockpiling will do for you. At some point, you're better off investing in skills training so you know how to grow/harvest/hunt/make food as well as other essentials skills like medical, fabrication, etc to live in a sustained fashion if a degraded society or interrupted services becomes a new normal for any protracted length of time.

Had a similar discussion with a guy at work who has a bunch of canned wheat and surplus ammunition stored in his basement, but has very little clue what to do with either of them, yet he thinks he's all set to go!

All in all, I'm not sure there are any guarantees. Either the most you'll need to deal with is a few weeks or maybe short months for an interruption like COVID showed us. Anything longer than that likely means there has been some kind of globally-disruptive event that changes life as we know it on a more permanent basis, which will require a fundamental shift to lifestyle. And some of those kind of scenarios beg the question of whether or not you even want to be around to clean up the mess (i.e nuclear fallout).

I have a group of buddies that like to muse on this stuff and occasionally do skills training. For example, this Summer instead of a normal campout, we're going to take a weeklong bushcraft course. Figure it will be fun regardless, and useful for other things out in the woods on weekend pursuits.

I wouldn't consider myself a "prepper", but someone who tries to be well-rounded and reasonably prepared to manage most unexpected situations, on a micro level like a flat tire on the trail to the macro level like no toilet paper or groceries, or doctor's offices for a month. Control what you can, and try not to spend to much energy sweating the stuff you can't. Beyond that, just enjoy life and hope for the best... as my old man always says, "Ya pays your money and ya takes your chances."

 

[DDD]

Great info and petspectives. Agree that being prepared with food, water, generator and dime fuel is common sense. I have all that already in our basement and garage. Costco does that to me naturally! It’s true that in our weakling society it wouldn’t take much to throw us into total chaos. One cell tower blackout would paralyze most of the folks who live around me! They wouldn’t have anyone to talk to or get directions from!

 

[gmoon]

Im definitely of this mindset.

It was part of the justification to add the 60 gallon S&B tank for my 22 6.7. Gives me plenty of range (roughly 800 miles) and I have a full camper build. Best part -- it replaced the factory tank so it didnt take up any additional space in the bed. No fuel cans to carry around.

If you have a truck bed open (again I have a camper on full time so I dont have this liberty) I would just put in a transferflow or Scepter fuel cans. This paired with an replacement tank from S&B or TransferFlow would give you similar range, and you wouldnt have to tow a trailer (which reduces MPG heavily compared to putting it in the bed and you would have less equipment youd need to hide. You might also encounter contaminated fuel, which would be a real problem given you have one large tank, vs numerous smaller ones. You would also need to plan for a spare tire or two for the trailer should you encounter a flat.

What if you need to ditch you primary vehicle for your secondary, or you procured another vehicle along your route? What if it couldnt tow a trailer, or your fuel trailer was filled with gas or diesel, but your new ride required the opposite type of fuel?

I think a modular and small quantity fuel solution may fit your needs better for this type of situation. But maybe not.

I like the idea of smaller cans as you can be much more discrete when siphoning from parked vehicles. In a SHTF scenario, you could go car to car (or truck to truck) with a 5 gallon can. If you had to ditch your vehicle you can easily take the fuel cans with you. I think if you talk with most SF guys, they will tell you that the capability to move from vehicle to vehicle in times where the system as we know it shuts down is paramount.

 

[OldCowboy]

I love that this thread has been resurrected. I'll give a bit of an update. I got a HUMVEE trailer from the military auction site and put two tanks on it that give me the 120g and a Fillrite pump and hose on it. I don't have a photo on my computer, but I do have one while under construction so one tank is visible.

The positives and challenges you all have laid out here are certainly what I have been going over for years and I appreciate your input. I chose the small trailer for the run flat tires and the hitch activated brakes. It helps with a lot of the problems. I've taken the trailer out a few times to refresh the gas (I fill my autos from this and then refill it every few months to keep the gas fresh). It works great.

The family plan is to get out of the population density problem areas before SHTF and not have to worry about the problems on the road. If we don't see it coming, this is the backup. We have a delay in the plan to let the worst of the road problems settle down, we have a location we all have scouted at the half-way point, and we do have HAM licenses and radios, but also a no-comms plan to execute even if we can't communicate. It's still loaded with risks, but we have tried to think of as much as we can.

Like all of you, I hope never to have to use it. I'll just keep the trailer for gas around the home (my tractor is a gasser), but if I have no option but to get out on the road, I have this and a few friends (is it too prepper to say MAG?) for security, and we'll head out.

 

[Vecman]

Never realized this thread existed. The initial post regarding the fuel trailer is interesting, as I'd been contemplating the same problem of retrieving some family members over approx a 2k mile round trip. A 58 gal Transferflow tank and an in-bed transfer/aux tank around 100 gals should do the trick, but will need to look into the legalities of that for pre-SHTF use. Guess I'll need to go back and read the thread and see what the conclusion was.

Overall, I think it's a good discussion. Some times even just being prepare for "personal SHTF" is good. Food and some fuel storage, for example, can sure come in handy if you suddenly find yourself out of work, for example.

Also, there are limits to how much stockpiling will do for you. At some point, you're better off investing in skills training so you know how to grow/harvest/hunt/make food as well as other essentials skills like medical, fabrication, etc to live in a sustained fashion if a degraded society or interrupted services becomes a new normal for any protracted length of time.

Had a similar discussion with a guy at work who has a bunch of canned wheat and surplus ammunition stored in his basement, but has very little clue what to do with either of them, yet he thinks he's all set to go!

All in all, I'm not sure there are any guarantees. Either the most you'll need to deal with is a few weeks or maybe short months for an interruption like COVID showed us. Anything longer than that likely means there has been some kind of globally-disruptive event that changes life as we know it on a more permanent basis, which will require a fundamental shift to lifestyle. And some of those kind of scenarios beg the question of whether or not you even want to be around to clean up the mess (i.e nuclear fallout).

I have a group of buddies that like to muse on this stuff and occasionally do skills training. For example, this Summer instead of a normal campout, we're going to take a weeklong bushcraft course. Figure it will be fun regardless, and useful for other things out in the woods on weekend pursuits.

I wouldn't consider myself a "prepper", but someone who tries to be well-rounded and reasonably prepared to manage most unexpected situations, on a micro level like a flat tire on the trail to the macro level like no toilet paper or groceries, or doctor's offices for a month. Control what you can, and try not to spend to much energy sweating the stuff you can't. Beyond that, just enjoy life and hope for the best... as my old man always says, "Ya pays your money and ya takes your chances."

Very true stuff. We have a bunch of ingredients that store for decades, and I made sure to laminate some recipes on how to use it efficiently. Then added some “just add water” type food stuffs as well that last just as long. Doubled our available calories. Also have several styles of water filtration, including once that can remove chlorine from pool water. I’m medical, but I have a lot of wilderness med books and herb medicine books in case there’s no power/internet, so I can reference some of these things that I don’t do often/won’t remember. I try to stay stocked on basic stuff, like sutures and local anesthetics. They last a very long time. I”ve had to stitch up several family members and friends so it usually comes in handy regardless.

Bushcraft course would be tons of fun. I love watching those “Alone” style shows to see how people do things when they have to totally survive on the land. I’m not a huge hunter, so that’s also been on a bucket list - to hunt and learn how to field dress and then process game meat. Would love to learn how to do this for cattle as well. Long time ago I found a group of ex snipers that would run a class on long range shooting. Thought that would be totally fun also.

 

[Modman]

I love watching those “Alone” style shows to see how people do things when they have to totally survive on the land.

So do I. When they first came out with "Survivor" I thought it was going to be something like "Alone". Boy was I disappointed! Needless to say I was super excited when the first season of Alone came out.

 

[Vermonster]

I love that this thread has been resurrected. I'll give a bit of an update. I got a HUMVEE trailer from the military auction site and put two tanks on it that give me the 120g and a Fillrite pump and hose on it. I don't have a photo on my computer, but I do have one while under construction so one tank is visible.
View attachment 143007
View attachment 143008
The positives and challenges you all have laid out here are certainly what I have been going over for years and I appreciate your input. I chose the small trailer for the run flat tires and the hitch activated brakes. It helps with a lot of the problems. I've taken the trailer out a few times to refresh the gas (I fill my autos from this and then refill it every few months to keep the gas fresh). It works great.

The family plan is to get out of the population density problem areas before SHTF and not have to worry about the problems on the road. If we don't see it coming, this is the backup. We have a delay in the plan to let the worst of the road problems settle down, we have a location we all have scouted at the half-way point, and we do have HAM licenses and radios, but also a no-comms plan to execute even if we can't communicate. It's still loaded with risks, but we have tried to think of as much as we can.

Like all of you, I hope never to have to use it. I'll just keep the trailer for gas around the home (my tractor is a gasser), but if I have no option but to get out on the road, I have this and a few friends (is it too prepper to say MAG?) for security, and we'll head out.

You’re one cool cat, @OldCowboy

 

[TRAMPER]

(Not the people on this thread of course)