Future of the tremor and the 7.3l ???

[Akwagon]

Wanted to open up a chat on potential future value of our tremors.... off a cliff or to the moon... along with just the 7.3l in general.

Try and keep politics out of this! I know it maybe tough for some.., ??

current thoughts....
Fuel/oil prices only rising, will make big gas motors less appealing.
The giant move to electric (not trying to open this good/bad debate on this thread) will potential make buying a new gas powered truck very hard in 10-15 years.

will this make our tremors yard ornaments in 10-15 years.
or something that’s a highly sought after desirable truck.....,,

just something I’ve been pondering, curious what others are thinking.

 

[Driftwood]

I've been saying for the past year or so, the 7.3L has a good chance of being the last big block engine produced, with the huge shift to Electric and 'going green'. My 7.3L will either be buried with me or gifted to my son

 

[oops]

10 years is not very long.

Remember that diesel's have been being phased out since 2008 (13 years), and yet look how many people here are still going out of their way to buy one. (And look at how much R&D Ford et al have still been investing to continue producing desirable and viable diesels.)

On a 10 year timespan I do think we'll see the diesel phase out relatively complete and popularity will sharply decline. (Probably why Ford invested in the 7.3.) It will take another ~10 years from there for the gas phase out to really settle in.

For heavy duty trucks, I think it will be ~10 years until we see desirable fully electric options and another ~10 years before they're affordable enough to be commonplace (including affordability of at-home charging infrastructure.)

Some other possible short-term (~10 year) realities:

a. A viable gas-electric or diesel-electric platform emerges for heavy duty vehicles. Unsure what impact this would have on desirability of existing drivetrains.

b. Legislation forces classification of all heavy duty (fossil fuel burning) trucks as commercial vehicles. This potentially levels the playing field a bit more between the 7.3 and the diesel in the used market. A major reason people seem to be buying the 7.3 is lower cost/complexity for compliance. This said, I don't think this type of legislation will go into effect on a 10 year timespan. It would probably be phased in by 2035. A variable here is how much public sentiment changes over the next 10 years against fossil fuels and for emissions control legislation. It's very (if not most) likely that the effects of climate change within the next 10 years are significant enough to meaningfully influence sentiment such that sweeping legislation could be rapidly passed. It's also the case that in the next 10 years the most conservative, and currently most influential, voter base will die off while two new, currently environmentally progressive generations will reach voting age. These generations may also be the most negatively impacted by the 10 year effects of climate change. Again pointing towards the potential of meaningful, immediate legislation in the relatively short window of time that is 10 years.

 

[LT75]

I thought that ford just signed contracts with bus and ambulance companies to use that engine in upcoming models.

 

[jhblaze1]

I just hope they sell diesel for 4 or 5 more decades. I know this is a 7.3 thread but the electric shit obviously is an equal threat to diesels. I'll keep this truck as long as diesel pumps exist and it runs. I don't think I could ever be excited about buying an EV. Even if they invented chargers that could fully charge an EV in the same time it takes to pump a full tank of gas/diesel. I like the feel, and sound of ICE engines.

I hate Dodge but I like to see them bucking the trend an tossing hellcat engines in everything. No doubt our fossil fuel engines are becoming obsolete though and it is only a matter of time before no one makes them anymore. I just hope I'd long dead before that happens or the entire concept of car/trucks/vehicles is completely ruined for me.

 

[oops]

I thought that ford just signed contracts with bus and ambulance companies to use that engine in upcoming models.

The 7.3 easily has another 20 years of life in the commercial market.

I just hope they sell diesel for 4 or 5 more decades. I know this is a 7.3 thread but the electric shit obviously is an equal threat to diesels. I'll keep this truck as long as diesel pumps exist and it runs. I don't think I could ever be excited about buying an EV. Even if they invented chargers that could fully charge an EV in the same time it takes to pump a full tank of gas/diesel. I like the feel, and sound of ICE engines.

I hate Dodge but I like to see them bucking the trend an tossing hellcat engines in everything. No doubt our fossil fuel engines are becoming obsolete though and it is only a matter of time before no one makes them anymore. I just hope I'd long dead before that happens or the entire concept of car/trucks/vehicles is completely ruined for me.

You won’t see any diesels in California in 40 years. And probably anywhere else within 50 for that matter.

 

[Dark Horse Fred]

Wanted to open up a chat on potential future value of our tremors.... off a cliff or to the moon... along with just the 7.3l in general.

Try and keep politics out of this! I know it maybe tough for some.., ??

current thoughts....
Fuel/oil prices only rising, will make big gas motors less appealing.
The giant move to electric (not trying to open this good/bad debate on this thread) will potential make buying a new gas powered truck very hard in 10-15 years.

will this make our tremors yard ornaments in 10-15 years.
or something that’s a highly sought after desirable truck.....,,

just something I’ve been pondering, curious what others are thinking.

Unfortunately, politics has a lot to do with it ?.

 

[MoKan]

Meh...

Fossil fuels aren't going anywhere. Energy density is too good for batteries to match, even in the best R&D labs today.

Where's you're food grown? Farms that run on tractors carrying 300+ gallons of fuel. Try getting that much energy to a field that doesn't have its own substation.

How does that food get to you? Truck. That carries 150+ gallons of fuel. With a Reefer using 30 gallons of fuel. Delivering food that will expire if the transit takes too long.

How does the road the truck takes get built and maintained? By construction equipment. Carrying 100s of gallons of fuel. Want to fix I-70 in BFE Western KS with electric equipment? Better drag a fuel truck along for the 2500kW genset.

Where does all that crap on Amazon come from? China. Shipped here on ships burning 10,000s of gallons of bunker fuel. Last I checked, sail based cargo ships went bye-bye 150 years ago.

This is a discussion I have with my more greenie friends all the time. Most of them are lawyers or salesmen, with very little exposure to the energy foundations of our society. All they want to argue is electric cars and solar panels. When I bring up how shit REALLY gets done, and how all their cheap Made in China shit gets to their house, they usually shut up.

Banning fossil fuels will being a civil war faster then an outright ban on firearms. Hungry and cold does not make a person compliant.

 

[jhblaze1]

You won’t see any diesels in California in 40 years. And probably anywhere else within 50 for that matter.

Yeah I know. Hopefully I'm not living in CA in 40 years. The death of diesels and ultimately ice engines is sad.

We'll all be driving flimsy, plastic, battery operated shit wagons soon enough.

I wish I was born 30 or so years earlier. I'd be 70 now and wouldn't care too much about this shit.

If I'm forced to buy an EV at any point in my life, I'm going to spend every weekend burning tires in my back yard.

 

[oops]

Meh...

Fossil fuels aren't going anywhere. Energy density is too good for batteries to match, even in the best R&D labs today.

Where's you're food grown? Farms that run on tractors carrying 300+ gallons of fuel. Try getting that much energy to a field that doesn't have its own substation.

How does that food get to you? Truck. That carries 150+ gallons of fuel. With a Reefer using 30 gallons of fuel. Delivering food that will expire if the transit takes too long.

How does the road the truck takes get built and maintained? By construction equipment. Carrying 100s of gallons of fuel. Want to fix I-70 in BFE Western KS with electric equipment? Better drag a fuel truck along for the 2500kW genset.

Where does all that crap on Amazon come from? China. Shipped here on ships burning 10,000s of gallons of bunker fuel. Last I checked, sail based cargo ships went bye-bye 150 years ago.

This is a discussion I have with my more greenie friends all the time. Most of them are lawyers or salesmen, with very little exposure to the energy foundations of our society. All they want to argue is electric cars and solar panels. When I bring up how shit REALLY gets done, and how all their cheap Made in China shit gets to their house, they usually shut up.

Banning fossil fuels will being a civil war faster then an outright ban on firearms. Hungry and cold does not make a person compliant.

Well, you're talking about fossil fuels use wholly, rather than fossil fuel powered non-commercial trucks.

You also seem to be thinking about “how shit gets done” today versus how it will work in the future.

“We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten.”

 

[5.8 Venom]

I think electric is a whole lot farther out than folks are estimating, like maybe 30 or more years. The generation and delivery infrastructure are simply not there.

 

[LoneStar Tremor]

Meh...

Fossil fuels aren't going anywhere. Energy density is too good for batteries to match, even in the best R&D labs today.

Where's you're food grown? Farms that run on tractors carrying 300+ gallons of fuel. Try getting that much energy to a field that doesn't have its own substation.

How does that food get to you? Truck. That carries 150+ gallons of fuel. With a Reefer using 30 gallons of fuel. Delivering food that will expire if the transit takes too long.

How does the road the truck takes get built and maintained? By construction equipment. Carrying 100s of gallons of fuel. Want to fix I-70 in BFE Western KS with electric equipment? Better drag a fuel truck along for the 2500kW genset.

Where does all that crap on Amazon come from? China. Shipped here on ships burning 10,000s of gallons of bunker fuel. Last I checked, sail based cargo ships went bye-bye 150 years ago.

This is a discussion I have with my more greenie friends all the time. Most of them are lawyers or salesmen, with very little exposure to the energy foundations of our society. All they want to argue is electric cars and solar panels. When I bring up how shit REALLY gets done, and how all their cheap Made in China shit gets to their house, they usually shut up.

Banning fossil fuels will being a civil war faster then an outright ban on firearms. Hungry and cold does not make a person compliant.

Right there with you. I think the idea of focusing on already clean automobile emissions in the richest country in the world while giving international ship trade using decades old technology and “emerging economies” aka the largest and worst polluting economies a pass is a bunch of bs.

 

[oops]

Yeah I know. Hopefully I'm not living in CA in 40 years. The death of diesels and ultimately ice engines is sad.

We'll all be driving flimsy, plastic, battery operated shit wagons soon enough.

I wish I was born 30 or so years earlier. I'd be 70 now and wouldn't care too much about this shit.

If I'm forced to buy an EV at any point in my life, I'm going to spend every weekend burning tires in my back yard.

My bet is on a 40 year timescale you'll feel differently. Set a reminder to check back in this. Hope this forum and us both are still here by then.

 

[oops]

Right there with you. I think the idea of focusing on already clean automobile emissions in the richest country in the world while giving international ship trade using decades old technology and “emerging economies” aka the largest and worst polluting economies a pass is a bunch of bs.

This is very true. That said, far more people live in close proximity to diesel car pollution than shipping pollution. Unfortunately I used to live on a perch next to the 101 within a mile of SF Bay. Years later I'm still cleaning soot off all of my shit and paying co-pay's on asthma treatments. The view was sure pretty though…

 

[jhblaze1]

Meh...

Fossil fuels aren't going anywhere. Energy density is too good for batteries to match, even in the best R&D labs today.

Where's you're food grown? Farms that run on tractors carrying 300+ gallons of fuel. Try getting that much energy to a field that doesn't have its own substation.

How does that food get to you? Truck. That carries 150+ gallons of fuel. With a Reefer using 30 gallons of fuel. Delivering food that will expire if the transit takes too long.

How does the road the truck takes get built and maintained? By construction equipment. Carrying 100s of gallons of fuel. Want to fix I-70 in BFE Western KS with electric equipment? Better drag a fuel truck along for the 2500kW genset.

Where does all that crap on Amazon come from? China. Shipped here on ships burning 10,000s of gallons of bunker fuel. Last I checked, sail based cargo ships went bye-bye 150 years ago.

This is a discussion I have with my more greenie friends all the time. Most of them are lawyers or salesmen, with very little exposure to the energy foundations of our society. All they want to argue is electric cars and solar panels. When I bring up how shit REALLY gets done, and how all their cheap Made in China shit gets to their house, they usually shut up.

Banning fossil fuels will being a civil war faster then an outright ban on firearms. Hungry and cold does not make a person compliant.

this is all true, but I don't think it will stop politicians from cramming EVs down the throats of the people. A full global ban on fossil fuels? Never. That wouldn't just be a civil war it would be WW3 (Saudi Arabia and the rest of OPEC wouldn't accept going from Oil rich to sand poor over night). China, India, the biggest polluters get a pass on their emissions shit bc India claims developing country status and everyone gets all their cheap shit from China. China's economy would also implode without dino fuel and they'd never allow that.

There will be carve outs for major industrial usages of dino fuels such as trains, ships, some trucking. Elon is already demonstrating the viability of EV semi trucks that absolutely smoke traditional trucks performance wise. Just needs to get the down time of charging reduced and that's only a matter of time. Industrial scale farming isn't going electric any time soon, I agree there, same with shipping and aircraft....can't run a jet on a battery.

But sadly for the rest of us plebs, EVs are going to get crammed up our asses.

 

[jhblaze1]

My bet is on a 40 year timescale you'll feel differently. Set a reminder to check back in this. Hope this forum and us both are still here by then.

hope you're right lol. But I truly can't understate my hatred of EVs. I love everything about internal combustion engines.

 

[oops]

hope you're right lol. But I truly can't understate my hatred of EVs. I love everything about internal combustion engines.

Some of these electric cars are pretty sweet. Why choose ?

 

[MoKan]

There will be carve outs for major industrial usages of dino fuels such as trains, ships, some trucking. Elon is already demonstrating the viability of EV semi trucks that absolutely smoke traditional trucks performance wise. Just needs to get the down time of charging reduced and that's only a matter of time. Industrial scale farming isn't going electric any time soon, I agree there, same with shipping and aircraft....can't run a jet on a battery.

What performance? Range? Acceleration? PAyload? I belive what Elon claims as soon as I believe Epstein killed himself.

Fleet owners only care about capability, cost, maintenance, and uptime. EV semi trucks get their butts whipped in three out of four of those, and the cost part makes it a non-starter. Barring a tenfold improvement in both energy density and charge time, EV trucks will be exclusively for LTL and regional haul duties where the government forces acceptance or offers huge incentives for them. Your St. Louis to Denver run will still run on dino fuel for the next 20 years.

 

[oops]

What performance? Range? Acceleration? PAyload? I belive what Elon claims as soon as I believe Epstein killed himself.

Fleet owners only care about capability, cost, maintenance, and uptime. EV semi trucks get their butts whipped in three out of four of those, and the cost part makes it a non-starter. Barring a tenfold improvement in both energy density and charge time, EV trucks will be exclusively for LTL and regional haul duties where the government forces acceptance or offers huge incentives for them. Your St. Louis to Denver run will still run on dino fuel for the next 20 years.

10 years ago an electric semi wasn’t even a believable possibility.

Now we’re debating whether electric semi’s are as good or better than the old smokers.

I’m pretty sure you’ll see more than a tenfold improvement over 20 years.

 

[That Guy]

One variable not considered here is the very real possibility of an electrical grid failure due to cyber hack or EMP. This threat looms larger every day. If it ever transpired EVs will be useless but it will also make delivery of fossil fuel problematic but still do-able but not at your corner station. At that point I guess we are in Mad Max territory.

Sorry, didn’t mean to get all doomsday.