Ford Superduty Production Capacity Analysis 12-2023

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2022 F350 Tremor
There have been numerous questions asked about hold ups and the SuperDuty Production. In 2022 when ordering my Tremor, I spent quite a few weekends researching and finding articles to come up with a statistical analysis on when my truck may be built. In the end, my estimate was not too far off, but I attribute it to blind luck as my error spread was quite large due to assumptions. For those wishing to order or have one on order, I updated the sheet below with information provided for the 2024 model year and it should give you an indication on where you would be in line, (not taking allocations, dealer preference, etc into account) if Ford had a First Come, First Serve approach. This information and data is fairly recent and up to date based on current sources.

**DISCLAIMER: I do not work for Ford, a dealership or affiliated in any way. This data although has been "confirmed" as accurate through a few sources, did not come directly to me from Ford. The data available was NOT complete, and there are various assumptions noted in the graphic below. The Monthly Production Capacity is ESTIMATED off of Annual. There is not any information that I could find that would provide monthly capacity for various options or Trim levels, so I just took the Annual/12 for an average. Some of these item constraints may take priority for certain builds and that would affect building and backlog of lower trims.

This is not perfect, but gives you an idea of supply quantities in relation to current orders. This is probably why KR and Platinum orders are taking so long to get scheduled, and some guys with Lariats get scheduled immediately while others take longer (HO Motor/commodity constraints on top of Dealer Allocation issues). I haven't found any better breakdown or insight, so hopefully this helps some of the members here.

The Months to Clear would be IF Ford were to build an equal amount each month of the higher trims, how many months would it take to for the backlog to clear up with just orders already placed as of late November/early December. Interesting enough, it looks like the F450 has a 12 month backlog as of right now, unless there is a way to get an F450 without the 19.5" Tires.

Ford SD Capacity.jpg
 
There have been numerous questions asked about hold ups and the SuperDuty Production. In 2022 when ordering my Tremor, I spent quite a few weekends researching and finding articles to come up with a statistical analysis on when my truck may be built. In the end, my estimate was not too far off, but I attribute it to blind luck as my error spread was quite large due to assumptions. For those wishing to order or have one on order, I updated the sheet below with information provided for the 2024 model year and it should give you an indication on where you would be in line, (not taking allocations, dealer preference, etc into account) if Ford had a First Come, First Serve approach. This information and data is fairly recent and up to date based on current sources.

**DISCLAIMER: I do not work for Ford, a dealership or affiliated in any way. This data although has been "confirmed" as accurate through a few sources, did not come directly to me from Ford. The data available was NOT complete, and there are various assumptions noted in the graphic below. The Monthly Production Capacity is ESTIMATED off of Annual. There is not any information that I could find that would provide monthly capacity for various options or Trim levels, so I just took the Annual/12 for an average. Some of these item constraints may take priority for certain builds and that would affect building and backlog of lower trims.

This is not perfect, but gives you an idea of supply quantities in relation to current orders. This is probably why KR and Platinum orders are taking so long to get scheduled, and some guys with Lariats get scheduled immediately while others take longer (HO Motor/commodity constraints on top of Dealer Allocation issues). I haven't found any better breakdown or insight, so hopefully this helps some of the members here.

The Months to Clear would be IF Ford were to build an equal amount each month of the higher trims, how many months would it take to for the backlog to clear up with just orders already placed as of late November/early December. Interesting enough, it looks like the F450 has a 12 month backlog as of right now, unless there is a way to get an F450 without the 19.5" Tires.

View attachment 136615
This is an excellent read your breakdown of the trim levels are right on with Tim Bartz at Long McArthur Ford according to the latest scheduling notes episode today.
Update:
I received an update for my 24my F350 Platinum Tremor 7.3 on the 12/7 the day after your posted report what a coincidence. It is scheduled for week of 2/5/24 no email received it showed up in my ford account dashboard.
 

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So in your example, my order with the HO 6.7L that goes in today would present about a 5 month build timeline… estimated not considering allocations, priority, etc… ?
 
So in your example, my order with the HO 6.7L that goes in today would present about a 5 month build timeline… estimated not considering allocations, priority, etc… ?
Theoretically, yes. However, some of the HO 6.7L's are also Tremor packages and Limited's. My guess is that if all of the materials for a Limited are available, they will get the HO priority over other builds. Also you have 12" display constraints. My best guess based on December data, is that if you were to order a Lariat Tremor without something like a Tonneau cover, it would take ~3 - 5 months; assuming the dealer has the necessary allocations. If you go Platinum or KR 5 - 8 months. Limited would probably be 6 - 10 months.
 
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